I had the chance this week to see an old copy of BT’s Technology Journal, published at the time of the millennium. To give you an idea of how long ago the year 2000 actually was, the cover trumpeted an interactive version of the journal on CD-ROM that delivered a multimedia experience.
What was most interesting were a series of technology timelines, across areas as diverse as health, home and entertainment that predicted what the world would be like in 2020 and beyond. By now (2013) we should all be watching 3D without glasses, using robots in the kitchen and the police will be equipped with phasers (as seen in Star Trek). Looking forward by 2015 we’ll be able to pleasure ourselves with the Orgasmatron (though I’m sure that was in a 1960s Woody Allen film).
It is really easy to laugh at predictions made 13 years ago, particularly as they spectacularly failed to imagine things such as tablet computing and Facebook which have changed our lives and disrupted industries. I remember Tomorrow’s World back in the 1970s happily demonstrating the jet packs we’d be using to get around by the turn of the millennium. I’m still waiting for mine to arrive.
The reasons that futurologists get it spectacularly wrong are two-fold. Firstly, progress is not linear. Moore’s Law may apply to computers, but not to everything. Creating artificial organs does not mean that we’ll have artificial brains ten years later. Research simply doesn’t work like that and is much more stop start. Even now, eureka moments can move things forward rapidly or development can hit a dead end.
The second, and most important factor, is about user acceptance – and this is where startups and innovators need to pay most attention. Just because technology can do something doesn’t mean that people will want to pay money for it. I’ve talked at length about how startups need to cross the chasm and create products that the mass market wants, rather than just early adopters. This is where a lot of the innovations predicted by BT (and plenty of others) fail. There simply isn’t a compelling reason for people to either change their behaviour and/or fork out significant amounts of money to take a risk on a new innovation. Understanding consumer behaviour and designing products to meet their needs is vital if new innovations are going to make it out of the lab and into the mainstream. Yes, we can create 3D TVs that don’t need glasses, but the cost is currently prohibitive. We could probably even build jet packs, but the legal framework isn’t there to control their usage.
So the lesson is clear – innovation, blue sky research and predicting the future is all very well, but think about the problem that you are trying to solve. Is there actually one? Do people care enough to change their behaviour? Will they pay money for it? Otherwise you’ll be left with a warehouse full of rusting robots as consumers spend their cash elsewhere. Though I do think the Orgasmatron probably has a decent chance of success…………
Marketing is at a crossroads. The rise of digital and mobile is providing the ability to get even closer to customers and deliver experiences that meet their needs. But like every change, it can be daunting. The discipline of marketing is moving fast and that means learning new skills and techniques to reach customers. Today’s marketer has to combine being a (big) data scientist and a technologist that can create and run web, mobile and social media campaigns with the more traditional skills of understanding customers and creating compelling propositions to reach them.
Luckily of course, being marketing, there are no shortage of gurus and conferences available to advise on how marketers can make the move to embrace digital. Unfortunately many of them may be well-marketed but are short on actionable content for the majority of businesses. After all it is no point seeing what someone achieved with a multi-million pound budget when you are scrabbling around down the back of the marketing sofa for loose change to pay for your new Facebook campaign.
That’s where the forthcoming Another Marketing Conference (25 June 2013 at the Junction in Cambridge) comes in. Designed to help marketers innovate, it features inspiring speakers and a chance to network with peers in great surroundings. I attended last year’s and found it a refreshing mix of interesting presentations and discussion of the pressing issues affecting marketers at all levels. Most importantly, I’ve used lots of what I learnt last year since then – and not just as content for blog posts. I’m not alone – according to the organisers 91% of last year’s delegates would recommend it to a colleague.
This year’s speakers include:
- Rory Sutherland, Ogilvy, on multiple models of human behaviour
- Richard Murphy, Nokia, talking about reinventing the company in the digital era
- Paul Berney, Mobile Marketing Association, on reaching mobile consumers through content and context
- Peter Waggett, IBM, discussing big data
- Julie Roberts, TMW, on making marketing effective
- Dave Trott, The Gate, talking about unleashing the creative spark
- Jon Dodd, Bunnyfoot, discussing tapping into human behaviour
- Julie Strawson, Monotype, on delivering a seamless consumer experience across multiple touchpoints
There are a lot of marketing conferences looking to advise people on what to do next. From my experience last year, Another Marketing Conference is well worth checking out, whatever sector or size of business you are in.
Many people spend more time on the internet than they do in face to face or even telephone conversations. But despite the rise of video, we’re not really using all our senses on the internet, missing out on touch and smell. Replicating touch is a difficult one, though I’m sure the porn industry is working on technologies like electronic skin suits that help there.
Smell is (in practice) a bit easier. Everyone understands the power of scents to change our moods – from the multibillion pound perfume industry to supermarkets pumping round the smell of hot bread to get our taste buds salivating. I’m probably not alone in being disappointed that the Bank of Canada has categorically denied that its new plastic bank notes smell of maple syrup. Hundreds of Canadians wrote to the bank, claiming they could smell maple syrup on the maple leaf note – with many asking for the scent to be strengthened.
But experiments in delivering smell via the internet have all, so far, failed to catch on – in fact Google made it the basis of its last April Fool’s joke, with the Google Nose. In the same way that Smell-O-Vision flopped at the cinema, pioneers have vanished into obscurity. All shared a similar approach – a plug in device to your computer that mixed different components to deliver the right smell to match the page you were on or the situation you were in. The key issue is that while you can create any colour from the basic Red, Green, Blue combination, the palette for smell is much wider, meaning the device would have to have an enormous number of odour components inside it.
Latest internet smell technologies are trying to make things simpler. The Mint Digital Foundry launched Olly, essentially a plug in atomiser that you fill with a scent source. You can then set it to spray when a particular internet event occurs (such as receiving an email or a tweet). In Japan, the Chaku Perfume Company has created Chat Perf, an add on scent tank for your iPhone. You can then use the app to ‘send’ the scent to a friend with a tank of their own.
Smell on the internet may be in its infancy, but get it right and the benefits for marketers and internet companies are potentially huge. The scent of lavender on a page encouraging us to buy flowers, the background smell of the sea on a holiday site, the aromas of food on a cookery or restaurant page. The possibilities are endless – as they are for online gaming (smell the fear!), incorporating into mainstream TV or films or identifying your friends on social networks. So, rather than trying to build the next Facebook, entrepreneurs should be looking closer to home for the next big thing. After all, it is as plain as the nose on your face…………