Revolutionary Measures

Will Facebook take over the world?

 

Facebook logo Español: Logotipo de Facebook Fr...

Last week Facebook announced that on Monday 24th August 1 billion people logged into the social network. That’s 15% (almost one in seven) of the world’s population using Facebook in a 24 hour period. And given that over half of the globe still isn’t online, the percentage of actual versus potential users is actually much higher – closer to 33% of the 3.195 billion internet users.

The announcement begs three big questions:

1.Is it a good thing?
It is difficult to find a parallel in history for a single entity being used by so many people across the world. There have been monopolies in the past of course, particularly in telecoms before deregulation, but these operated at a country level, and you didn’t have a choice. You wanted to make a phone call and you had to use BT or AT&T. When it comes to control over how people communicate the only example that comes to mind is organised religion, such as the pre-Reformation Catholic Church where all of Europe was subservient to the Pope. As yet, Mark Zuckerberg hasn’t branded any Twitter users as heretics, for which we should obviously be grateful.

Critics will argue that having one company central to how we communicate with friends and family, find our news and even shop is a bad thing. On the other hand, Facebook fans will point out that you have a choice – other social networks are available and the past is littered with previously successful companies (such as MySpace) that failed to evolve. This does ignore the impact of the network effect – as more and more people are on Facebook, it becomes increasingly necessary to be on there if you don’t want to miss out. Technically it is very easy for anyone to create a new social network, what is difficult is enticing enough people to join to make it necessary for their friends to also jump aboard.

What is definitely true is that Facebook, like other international online giants, does need to scrutiny that matches its power and reach. I’m not talking about regulation per se, but any organisation that has Facebook’s combination of personal demographic data and ability to analyse it on a grand scale has to meet the highest standards of behaviour.

2.What about the other 85%?
The obvious point that many people have made is that if 1 billion people were on Facebook on a single day, the remainder of the world (85% in fact), were doing something different. As we’ve seen, Facebook has captured a large percentage of the online population, which is why the company’s efforts are being put into increasing the number of people with access to the internet in some form. Its main vehicle for getting people online is Internet.org, which provides free basic internet services in areas where it is either non-existent or unaffordable. Some of the ways Internet.org is looking to extend coverage include high altitude planes beaming a signal to a particular area, lasers and satellite technologies. However Internet.org has attracted criticism for only providing access to a walled garden of services, including (surprise surprise) Facebook itself.

Clearly if Facebook is to grow it is easier to expand the pie of internet users and reach the currently unconnected, rather than target the refuseniks in countries where it already enjoys high penetration rates. Expect more efforts to extend internet access – probably not just within developing countries but also within ‘notspots’ inside existing markets, thereby encouraging people to use the service even more.

3.Where next for Facebook?
Facebook has already overcome two major hurdles that have defeated its rivals. It has successfully transitioned to a mobile-first world (87% of access is from mobile devices), and is generating growing profits. As well as extending its reach to new victims (sorry, consumers), it also needs to increase engagement – i.e. ensure people still log on and use the service, and do it more often and for longer. The big bet that Zuckerberg has made here is on virtual reality, with the $2 billion purchase of Oculus VR expected to spawn headsets that deepen the experience of using Facebook and interacting with your friends. This, for me, is where things start to get more than a little creepy – if people are addicted to Facebook now, just imagine the time they’ll spend online if they can essentially experience reality without leaving their screen. Plus, with the current size and design of headsets, everyone will look like they are part of Daft Punk.

So, to answer my three questions, I’d say we should be wary about Facebook’s might, keep an eye on its efforts to reach the other 85% to ensure there is a level playing field when it comes to access, and be sceptical about the advantages virtual reality can actually bring us. After all, you could just pick up the phone and talk or, heaven forbid, chat to someone down the pub……

September 2, 2015 Posted by | Creative, Social Media | , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

How smart can a smartphone get?

If you needed evidence of the growth of the smartphone market and its move into every part of our lives, then this week’s Mobile World Congress (MWC) provides it. It wasn’t that long ago that the event was dominated by network infrastructure companies, but now it is essentially a consumer electronics show in all but name. And one that looks far beyond the handset itself. Ford launched an electric bike, Ikea announced furniture that charged your smartphone and a crowdfunded startup showed a suitcase that knows where it is and how much it weighs.

English: Steve Jobs shows off the white iPhone...

Five years ago none of these companies would have even thought of attending MWC – and it is all down to the rise of the smartphone. It is difficult to comprehend that the first iPhone was only launched in 2007, at a time when Apple was a niche technology player. It is now worth more than any other company in the world and 2 billion people globally have an internet-connected smartphone. By 2020 analysts predict that 80% of the world’s adults will own a smartphone.

As any honest iPhone owner will freely admit, they may be sleek, but they are actually rubbish for making and receiving calls. What they do provide is two things – a truly personal computer that fits in your pocket, and access to a global network of cloud-based apps. It is the mixture of the personal and the industrial that make smartphones central to our lives. We can monitor our own vital signs, and the environment around us through fitness and health trackers and mapping apps, and at the same time access any piece of information in the world and monitor and control devices hundreds or thousands of miles away. Provided you have a signal……….

Essentially the smartphone is a universal platform that companies can build on – whether it is a disruptive taxi business (Uber) or completely new ways of dating such as Tinder and Grindr.

So, based on what is on show at MWC, what are the next steps for the smartphone? So far it seems to split into two strands – virtual reality and the Internet of Things. HTC launched a new virtual reality headset, joining the likes of Sony, Microsoft, Samsung and Oculus Rift, promising a more immersive experience. Sensors to measure (and control) everything from bikes and cars to tennis racquets are also on show. The sole common denominator is that they rely on a smartphone and its connectivity to get information in and out quickly.

It is easy to look at some of the more outlandish predictions for connected technology and write them off as unlikely to make it into the mainstream. But then, back in 2007, when Steve Jobs unveiled the first iPhone, there were plenty of people who thought it would never take off. The smartphone revolution will continue to take over our lives – though I’m not looking forward to navigating streets full of people wearing virtual reality headsets who think they are on the beach, rather than on their way to work…………

March 4, 2015 Posted by | Creative, Marketing, Startup, Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Smartphones will eat the world

Commentators are full of predictions that software will eat the world, with jobs, industries and traditional means to doing things swept away by the rise of technology. From automated journalism to connected cars, the claim is that we’re undergoing a transformation in how we work, live and play.

While Apple has not listened to my complaints ...

Software is revolutionising the world around us, but I’d contend that there’s a much more disruptive factor impacting our lives – the smartphone. It essentially provides an always-on, easy to use, ubiquitous interface with all of the software around us. Without it we wouldn’t be able to access the power of technology. So, rather than software eating the world, I’d pinpoint 9 ways that smartphones are making a meal of it:

1. Health
Smartphones have the ability to monitor our vital signs and transmit information to doctors and medical staff in real-time. Whether it is using in-built or external, Bluetooth equipped sensors, smartphones will disrupt the health industry. Apple’s new focus on building a health ecosystem is just part of this trend, which can either be seen as a force for good or as allowing intrusive snooping on our most private moments. On the plus side patients can be monitored remotely, allowing them to remain at home rather than going into hospital for certain conditions, but confidentiality of data remains a worry. What if your insurance company could access your health data and amend your premiums accordingly?

2. Taxis and transport
Companies such as Uber and Lyft are radically changing the taxi market by removing the overhead (justified or otherwise) of traditional operators. Anyone can become a taxi driver – all they need is a car and a smartphone (which can also serve as your GPS, so you don’t need the Knowledge to direct you to the right place). This does raise potential issues about safety, vetting and insurance, hence the bitter battles being fought between traditional cab drivers and the new upstarts.

3. Marketing
At no point in human history has so much data been available about individuals. The combination of ‘free’ services such as Google and Facebook that hoover up our personal information and preferences, with the geolocation data from a smartphone mean that companies have the ability to understand more about their consumers than ever before. The challenge for marketers is twofold – they need to ensure that they have real, informed consent from consumers when handling their private data, but at the same time have to evolve the skills to sift through this big data to deliver personalised marketing that drives engagement. The traditional model of campaigns that take months to plan and implement is rapidly going out of the window – if marketers can’t adapt they risk being sidelined by ever cleverer algorithms.

4. Payments
There is something impressive about a pile of cash – even if it is just one pence pieces. But carrying it around is another story. Replacing pounds and pence with the ability to tap to pay even the smallest amount with your phone promises to turn us into a cashless society. And it also removes the need for a wallet full of credit, debit or loyalty cards. All you’ll need to do is select how you want to pay on your phone and the software will handle the transfer. Could we see traditional banks and financial services companies replaced by Apple Money – or even currencies swept aside by electronic dosh? It is certainly possible, hence Apple’s move into the sector with the iPhone 6.

5. Telephones
It may be difficult to remember, but when they began, mobile phones were for making phone calls or sending text messages (and playing Snake if you had a Nokia). Now the number of calls made and received is a fraction of before, as people move to messaging, email and free voice over IP services such as Skype. Many of us already pay more for our smartphone data plans than for calls and texts – meaning that mobile phone (and landline) operators will need to evolve new services if they are to be part of the smartphone future.

6. Toys
Growing up in an analogue world, toys and games were very straightforward. Now traditional toys are evolving to embrace both full on mobile gaming (think Angry Birds) and half way houses where the physical meets the virtual. Software such as Skylanders combines playing pieces containing electronic chips with fully fledged games to give a radically new experience. And this is just the beginning. As immersive technologies such as Google Glass and Oculus Rift gain traction we’ll find it difficult to tell reality and gaming apart. How long before people embed chips in themselves to become part of the latest smartphone game?

7. Utilities
Buying power is a necessary evil – and the battery life of smartphones does mean we’ll always need electricity to recharge them. Mobile devices, combined with sensors and the Internet of Things provide the ability to monitor and adjust how we use power. From turning smart thermostats up or down, to only switching on lights when the smartphone user is in the vicinity, they can change energy use. Taken a step further, consumers could cut out the energy company and use their smartphone to buy power directly from smaller producers, adding flexibility and potentially bringing down prices.

8. Insurance
The problem with insurance premiums is that they are based on averages, rather than knowledge of your individual circumstances. The data within a smartphone, either directly monitoring your movements, or linked to a sensor in your car, provides a deeper context around your behaviour and habits. Used properly this can help better judge the risks of insuring individuals – but again used incorrectly it will cause a privacy backlash.

9. Pub quizzes
As a Trivial Pursuit expert (and part of the reigning village quiz team champions) there’s nothing I like better than the chance to show off my knowledge. But how can pub quizzes survive in an era when Wikipedia can be accessed from your smartphone in milliseconds? Short of holding quizzes in exam conditions, with no toilet breaks where people can sneak off to check answers on the internet, cheating is going to become rife, making my carefully assembled general knowledge useless.

Research shows that the majority of us access the internet more through mobile devices than traditional PCs. And 20 per cent of young American adults admit to using their smartphones during sex. We look at our phones constantly, panic if they are out of sight for a minute and feel bereaved if they are lost or stolen. If it is true that software is eating the world, the smartphone is the knife, fork and plate responsible for the repast.

September 24, 2014 Posted by | Marketing, Startup | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments